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Infectious Disease Ecology and Modelling

The Infectious Disease Ecology and Modelling team led by Professor Nick Golding, combines mathematical and statistical modelling, ecology, and public health to address malaria and other infectious and vector-borne diseases. The team uses modelling and maps to measure the risk posed by some of the world’s most important and neglected diseases – including malaria, Japanese Encephalitis and COVID-19 – and provide rapid modelling analyses to policy makers.

Modelling the spread and control of a malaria vector

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death, particularly in Africa and among children.

Modelling to support Australia's COVID-19 response

Nick Golding BSc DPhil Honorary Research Fellow Nick.Golding@thekids.org.au Honorary Research Fellow Professor Nick Golding is the UWA Chair in

The Vector Atlas

The Vector Atlas aims to update and create vector species maps and spatial products that improve disease prediction, mitigation and preparedness.

Australia-Aotearoa Consortium for Epidemic Forecasting & Analytics (ACEFA)

The ACEFA NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence aims to support the timely, effective response to epidemic diseases in Australia through real-time data analytics, modelling, and forecasting.

Geospatial analysis of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission risk

Japanese Encephalitis virus is a mosquito-borne virus that is typically only found in south-east Asia.

Net benefit of smaller human populations to environmental integrity and individual health and wellbeing

The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990.

Opportunities to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia: lessons learned from the COVID-19 response

Disease surveillance data was critical in supporting public health decisions throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. At the same time, the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic revealed many shortcomings of surveillance systems for viral respiratory pathogens. Strengthening of surveillance systems was identified as a priority for the recently established Australian Centre for Disease Control, which represents a critical opportunity to review pre-pandemic and pandemic surveillance practices, and to decide on future priorities, during both pandemic and inter-pandemic periods.

Quantifying the impact of contact tracing interview prioritisation strategies on disease transmission: A modelling study

Contact tracing is an important public health measure used to reduce transmission of infectious diseases. Contact tracers typically conduct telephone interviews with cases to identify contacts and direct them to quarantine, with the aim of preventing onward transmission. However, in situations where caseloads exceed the capacity of the public health system, timely interviews may not be feasible for all cases. Here we present a modelling framework for assessing the impact of different case interview prioritisation strategies on disease transmission.

Health impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccination strategies in the early post-Omicron era: a dynamic modelling study

Following widespread exposure to Omicron variants, SARS-CoV-2 has transitioned to endemic circulation. Populations now have diverse infection and vaccination histories, resulting in heterogeneous immune landscapes. Careful consideration of the value of ongoing vaccination is required through the post-Omicron phase of COVID-19 management to minimise disease burden.